China's economy in the "inflection point" consumption will become the engine of growth
Yesterday at the 2010 China international capital market on the BBS, a number of economists say, is expected from next year, China's economy will face a slowing trend. Morgan Stanley Asia, greater China chief economist wang qing said yesterday affected by cyclical economic laws, China's GDP growth rate next year will no longer be sustained double-digit growth, is expected to drop to 9.5%.
Consumption will become economic growth engine
Wang said, all the economic data from China, China's current economic development situation is similar to 40 years ago, Japan and South Korea 20 years ago. If China follows the Japanese and south Korean economic development between the two countries, so China's current economy is experiencing a "turning point". He future of China's economic growth is expected to have fallen significantly, inflation will rise. At the same time, China's economic structure, income structure will have a profound adjustment, the service sector as a share of GDP will increase, consumption has gradually become the engine of economic growth. Industrial, manufacturing and export proportion will gradually decrease.
Ten years later, or into the biggest economies
But wang said at the same time, China's slowdown is relative to high growth situation now. A conservative estimate, according to the future China is growing at 8% a year, the rate of inflation from 3% to 4%, at the same time the yuan has appreciated 3% against the dollar to calculate, the size of the 2020 years of Chinese economy will reach $20 trillion, or will become the world's biggest economy.
The world bank senior economist Louis kuijs also think in China, China in 2010-2015 average GDP growth of about 8.8%, about 7.3% of GDP in 2016-2020, and will be increasingly close to the international average. The forecast and Goldman sachs after assessment for China's economy has larger different. On Monday, Goldman sachs has predicted that China's economy will continue to maintain the growth rate of 10% in 2011, at the same time remain optimistic about the economic outlook.
Citi: at the end of the Shanghai composite index more than 3500 points
Say the hot money will push up China's stock market, there is risk of bubbles
The United States on Wednesday announced a second round of quantitative easing, emerging market countries faced huge inflation test. Citi greater China chief economist Shen Mingliang yesterday said on the BBS, in 2010 China international capital market due to the New Deal will lead to more hot money into emerging markets, will further push up the stock market in China. He is expected by the end of this year, the a-share market (stock market) will be more than 3500 points.
Shen Mingliang said, because each region unequal economic recovery after the financial crisis, the developed countries and emerging countries, the policy of contrast. The developed countries continue to launch easing, more capital flows to emerging countries; And policy tight emerging countries, will further push up asset prices. Under the combination of two forces, has always been sensitive to dollars to China's stock market or in liquidity driven by rising more.
But he also warned that rising in this way is not necessarily a healthy stock market, under the dollar appreciation space may still exist, the stock market is also likely to face rose sharply after the bubble. Advice to investors was he, "is not in the market, or decide when to leave."